ENTER THE Russians into the equation. Moscow, sensing that the US wants to leave, is seeking to pressure it in Syria the way Iran pressures it in Iraq. Russia already has agreements with Turkey to partition parts of northern Syria and is selling Ankara its S-400 system. Turkey got the US to leave the border areas in October 2019, and now Russia hopes to muscle the US out of other areas. The Russian footprint in Syria is small, with a handful of vehicles in eastern Syria, but the US footprint is also small. So their contingents do a game of cat-and-mouse with these patrols. cnxps.cmd.push(function () { cnxps({ playerId: ’36af7c51-0caf-4741-9824-2c941fc6c17b’ }).render(‘4c4d856e0e6f4e3d808bbc1715e132f6’); });Washington says it wants to “de-escalate the situation” and that after the recent confrontation, the “coalition patrol departed the area.” For Moscow, this likely looks like a propaganda win. It tends to send people to video these incidents on ride-alongs, hoping to capture an incident with the US that will make it look weak or embarrassed. That could mean showing pro-Syrian regime protesters confronting American forces, or showing a helicopter harassing a patrol.The US has said that its patrol faced “unsafe and unprofessional actions like this” which “represent a breach of de-confliction protocols, committed to by the United States and Russia in December 2019.” The US says its forces “retain the inherent right and obligation to defend themselves from hostile acts. The international coalition’s mission in northeast Syria is to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS.” However, it took Washington a long time to issue this statement, which was put out to represent how seriously the White House takes this situation. This time, there were injuries, unlike in the past. Images of a Russian helicopter harassing the US patrol have been on social media since August 26. Video also shows the Russian and US vehicles chasing each other through a field. The US chairman of the Joint Chiefs also spoke to his Russian counterpart. Although the US provided no details of the conversation, it appears to relate to Syria.
THE INJURIES could cause more tension with Russia but could also just as likely lead to a quiet agreement to reduce these clashes of patrols for a period of time. Moscow has a way of pushing the envelope on various issues in Syria, often in concert with Turkey even when they seem to be at odds. Its goal is to appear stronger than it is, using just a few vehicles with the Russian flag to illustrate its commitment to the Syrian regime and securing areas in Syria. The clash with the Russians comes amid a visit to Turkey this week by US Syria envoy James Jeffrey, who is pro-Turkey. At the same time, the US State Department has sidelined its own SDF partners from any meetings, as part of a diplomatic process to end the Syrian conflict. While Jeffrey claims the Syrian opposition includes voices from eastern Syria, it appears that Kurdish voices have been systematically discriminated against due to pressure from Ankara. Turkey claims the SDF is linked to the Kurdish PKK which it calls a terrorist group. Some American voices want the US to withdraw from eastern Syria, arguing that the successful war on ISIS and work with the Kurds was part of an Obama-era policy that should be ditched. Others fear that if the US leaves, the Syrian regime will enter the vacuum.